News Update - 20060131
*** Topic: Tentative, last-chance talks scheduled for Geneva ***
In the past couple of weeks, the ongoing violence continued unabated. In addition, people's attention was focused on the visit last week of Erik Solheim, Norway's lead facilitator in the peace process, to SL to salvage the situation from full-fledged war. For the first time, though, the Western media has started to portray the bleak prospects of the peace process in realstic terms and not in unfounded optimism.
Meanwhile, the US continues to attempt to scare the LTTE from considering military confrontation. Of course, the threats will not be acted upon, and for good reason, but it adds a non-constructive element to the peace-related ongoings.
As has been seen, peace talks favor the SL government in that they push activity to the international realm where the smallest unit of representation is often the country. Outsiders to SL are not legally permitted by their own country's laws or SL's laws to recognize any force on the island, other than the SL government, as the guarantor of any of the people on the island. The military option favors the LTTE due to its comparitive strength. Because of the govt. refusal to do anything meaningful during peace efforts, the LTTE has also been left with no other option. Countries that have stepped in on behalf of the government against the LTTE during peacetime would also take a backseat during wartime.
The agreement to have a round of talks in Geneva next month to discuss the implementation of the ceasefire would tilt the balance of power slightly in favor of the government, except for one important, underplayed fact: a condition for the talks to go ahead as scheduled is that the government must cease its attacks against Tamils. This is perhaps the final call on the LTTE's last benefit of the doubt on the peace process.
http://www.tamilnet.com/art.html?catid=13&artid=16925
http://www.tamilnet.com/art.html?catid=13&artid=16924
http://www.tamilnet.com/art.html?catid=13&artid=16953
Tamils in SL, Tamil Nadu, Canada, and elsewhere in the world have started to come together in active support of the Tamils in the NorthEast.
http://www.tamilnet.com/art.html?catid=79&artid=16937
http://www.tamilnet.com/art.html?catid=13&artid=16957
http://www.tamilnet.com/art.html?catid=79&artid=16969
The Tamils of the NorthEast of SL, and remarkably one non-Tamil journalist, know what is in store for everyone, even if Westerners don't.
http://www.eelampage.com/?cn=23584
The LTTE knows with more detail just how things will unfold, and it probably cannot be stopped, even if SL, the US, and others don't realize.
http://www.tamilnet.com/art.html?catid=13&artid=16985
http://www.tamilnet.com/art.html?catid=13&artid=17000
The SL govt. attempted to sever the LTTE from its diaspora by having talks anywhere without a strong Tamil diaspora presence. (Places like South Africa, Turkey, Iceland, and Liechtenstein were rumored to have been suggested by the government.) The SL govt. might have already resumed war or at least not compromised on peace if it thought it could defeat the LTTE, much like Indonesia did to Aceh rebels in 2003.
http://www.tamilnet.com/art.html?catid=13&artid=17007
http://www.tamilnet.com/art.html?catid=13&artid=17023
http://www.tamilcanadian.com/pageview.php?ID=3776&SID=132
What we have now is a last call given by the LTTE to the SL government to prove its genuine intentions on the peace process. What has happened, though, is the stage is set -- if the talks do not happen, it will be easy for the LTTE to prove the SL govt. at fault and resume war solidly vindicated. If the government miraculously curbs attacks prior to the talks, then the talks will merely force the issue to be dealt with sooner rather than later. With the ball in its court, the SL govt. has wasted no time in brazenly showing where it stands.
It is worth noting that Anton Balasingham's book Politics of Duplicity describe how the 1995 ceasefire ended. With no normalization on the ground and its patience run thin, the LTTE gave a deadline of 3 weeks for the government to take minor confidence-building measures. The deadline elapsed, the LTTE extended the deadline by 2 weeks, the deadline elapsed again, and the LTTE resumed fighting thereafter. The ceasefire did not end with an explicit announcement as such, but neither was it an unexpected event.
http://www.tamilnet.com/art.html?catid=13&artid=8673
http://www.tamilnet.com/art.html?catid=13&artid=8758
The LTTE is also not afraid to act on its statements when it has to.
http://www.sangam.org/taraki/articles/2006/01-30_Self_Defense.php?uid=1479