News Update - 20060116
*** Topic: The balance of power in pre-war posturing ***
As the situation looks ever closer to war, a cursory comparison between the period before the ceasefire and now reveals that the net change is very little. No country in its right mind will send troops to SL, just as before, considering the strength of the LTTE that would make an encounter many times worse than Vietnam. Instead, they will continue to sell off aging weapons to SL and provide training and advice for a profit. None of this made a difference in outcome of the intense periods fighting right before ceasefire, though.
http://www.tamilnet.com/art.html?catid=79&artid=8839
If anything, the period of the ceasefire has allowed the LTTE to strengthen itself proportionally much more than SL has. For example, if the LTTE acquires a few planes, then it is more significant than if the SL air force acquires a few more planes. India's material support is now restrained greatly by political reasons in the TN Tamil parties. The training and arming of Tamil civilians in all parts of the NorthEast by the LTTE now gives them an effective national militia in large numbers to utilize, including in the heart of government controlled cities.
Of course, the US and other countries have not learned anything. This is the same US that invaded Iraq, is threatening Iran, and continues to negotiate with North Korea, based on what seems most beneficial.
http://www.tamilnet.com/art.html?catid=13&artid=16818
http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/COL217098.htm
A must read. Notice the discrepency between this article and the following one written by a Westerner.
http://www.dissidentvoice.org/Jan06/Sinnathurai07.htm
http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/COL132840.htm
A speech officially recognizing the LTTE's air wing (after keeping silence about it throughout more than a decade of rumors).
http://www.asiantribune.com/show_news.php?id=16709
http://www.eelamnation.com/news_item.asp?NewsID=3532
Travel advisories hark back to the periods of war before the ceasefire.
http://www.eelamnation.com/news_item.asp?NewsID=3540
Rajapakse supposedly has given the go-ahead to his military to attack the LTTE "in self defense".
http://www.eelampage.com/?cn=23367
The paramilitaries have been successfully labelled as the reason for the violence, and rightfully so (as the violence continues to be a manifestation of the shadow war).
http://www.tamilnet.com/art.html?catid=13&artid=16846
http://www.tamilnet.com/art.html?catid=13&artid=16874
An insightful perspective on what dynamics are at play with the violence of the past 2 months.
http://www.tamilguardian.com/beta/news_details.asp?newsid=460
Attacks, physical or verbal, have always been committed by government forces and allies. This attack may have been done by paramilitaries working with the SL military in revenge for the SLMM statement placing the blame on them as the source of violence. Perhaps it was done to frame the LTTE, or perhaps it was a little of both.
http://www.tamilnet.com/art.html?catid=13&artid=16856
A good map depicting the current balance of forces and main hotspots.
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/6/6e/Extent_of_territorial_control_in_sri_lanka.png
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tamil_Eelam
