News Update - 20051229
*** Topic: Looming War ***
For the past couple of weeks, the attacks of the ongoing shadow war have intensified dramatically. The attacks have mostly been against the SL troops and military intelligence operatives, and reprisal attacks by the SL military have been against Tamil civilians. War looks like a foregone conclusion at this point, with some people saying it will occur within a month or two.
Militarily, the LTTE has less enlistees, but is still most likely the more potent force. Taraki's analysis 8 months ago still holds true:
http://www.tamilnation.org/forum/sivaram/040721.htm (importance of strategy, end of war decided by willingness to fight)
http://www.tamilnation.org/forum/sivaram/040522.htm (balance of power, foreign intervention questionable)
http://www.tamilnation.org/forum/sivaram/050323.htm (morale counts for a lot in military strength)
The attacks are happening all over the parts of the Northeast. The following maps might be useful to visualize that. It is understood that in the event of war, fighting will happen not just in the Northeast, as has always happened, but it will be taken to the Kandy region (where 1 million Tamil sharecroppers live) as well as the capital Colombo.
http://www.maplandia.com/sri-lanka/
http://map.tamilnet.com/map/
Given the analysis above, the following information about military intelligence would imply that the LTTE is the stronger power between itself and the govt. military.
http://www.tamilcanadian.com/pageview.php?ID=3191&SID=123
http://www.tamilnet.com/art.html?catid=13&artid=16531
The countries who involved themselves in the peace process are now distancing themselves from it (through a lack of any meaningful action beyond mere statements such as this).
http://www.tamilnet.com/art.html?catid=13&artid=16583
In India, the 40 seats belonging to the Tamil coalition of MPs from Tamil Nadu out of a 220 seat ruling coalition means that the pressure that the Tamil MPs have been putting on the Indian federal government in favor of the LTTE has been having a lot of positive effect.
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/english/doc/2005-12/27/content_507077.htm
The assassination of TNA member of parliament Joseph Pararajasingham is the most recent one of a very important pro-Tamil leader. Due to this at this stage in the game, it would take a miracle to avert war.